Food inflation is expected to surpass 40% in December as consumer prices continue to rise. Economic experts have attributed this trend to challenges in food production in northern Nigeria, increased transportation activities and high demand during the festive season.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November 2024, showing that food inflation rose to 39.93% from 39.16% in October. This increase was driven by higher prices for staple foods like yam, water yam, coco yam, guinea corn, maize and rice.
The report also highlighted that the headline inflation rate climbed to 34.6% in November, up from 33.88% in October. On a year-on-year basis, the November 2024 headline inflation rate was 6.4 percentage points higher than the 28.2% recorded in November 2023.
Month-on-month, the headline inflation rate stood at 2.6% in November, slightly lower than October’s 2.64%. This indicates that while prices continued to rise, the pace of increase was marginally slower compared to the previous month.
On an annual basis, food inflation in November was 39.93%, a 7.08 percentage point increase compared to 32.84% in November 2023. The rise was linked to higher prices of yams, maize, rice, and other food categories such as oils and fats, and bread and cereals. Month-on-month, food inflation grew by 2.98%, a slight increase from 2.94% in October.
Analysts at an investment firm, noted that the November inflation figures were heavily influenced by rising food prices. They attributed this to ongoing security challenges in agricultural areas in northern Nigeria and festive demand for staple foods. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased to 28.75% year-on-year due to persistent high energy costs.
Looking ahead, experts anticipate continued upward pressure on inflation in December, driven by festive season demand, transportation activities and structural issues in food production. It is also projected that inflation will rise further, estimating it could reach 35.09% by the end of the year.