The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has slightly lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing rising global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC now projects oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from the previous estimate of 1.4 million bpd. This marks a 150,000 bpd cut from last month’s outlook. The group also reduced its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.0%, down from 3.1%, and trimmed the 2025 forecast to 3.1%.
According to the report, recent U.S. tariffs including those temporarily imposed on Nigerian exports have disrupted trade, raised consumer prices, slowed manufacturing and dampened international commerce. Although the tariffs have been paused for 90 days, they have already affected oil market stability.
Oil prices have reflected this uncertainty, with OPEC’s basket of crude oils dropping to $66.25 a barrel, down from $70.85 just days earlier. Brent crude also hovered around $66 after slight U.S. tariff exclusions, though prices are still down more than 10% this month.
Despite the forecast cut, OPEC remains more optimistic about future oil demand than other global bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects demand to peak within the decade due to cleaner energy transitions.
OPEC crude output dropped slightly in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, largely due to cuts from Nigeria and Iraq. However, Kazakhstan exceeded its production target again, pumping 1.852 million bpd far above its quota of 1.468 million bpd. The country has pledged to compensate for the excess in April.
Meanwhile, the eight OPEC countries that announced additional voluntary cuts last year including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan will increase production by 411,000 bpd in May. They will meet again on May 5 to review and decide June output levels. OPEC has said these increases could be paused or reversed if market conditions change.